Creating Markets

Learn how to create high-quality prediction markets on Oracle AI.

Requirements

Before creating a market, you need:

1. ORACLE Tokens

   • 10,000 ORACLE for creation fee (burned)
   • Additional ORACLE for initial liquidity

2. Connected Wallet

   • MetaMask or WalletConnect compatible

Creating a Market

Step 1: Write a Clear Question

Good questions are:

• Specific: "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by Dec 31, 2024?"
• Binary: Can be answered YES or NO
• Verifiable: Has objective resolution criteria
• Time-bound: Has a clear deadline

Bad questions:

• ❌ "Will Bitcoin go up?" (vague, no deadline)
• ❌ "Is Ethereum better than Solana?" (subjective)
• ❌ "Will it rain tomorrow?" (too local/ambiguous)

Step 2: Define Resolution Criteria

The resolution criteria tells AI resolvers exactly how to determine the outcome.

Good criteria:

Resolution will be based on the official closing price of
BTC/USD on Coinbase at 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2024.
YES if price >= $100,000.00, NO otherwise.

Include:

• Exact data source
• Precise measurement time
• Clear threshold
• Edge case handling

Step 3: Add Evidence URLs

Evidence URLs are websites that AI resolvers will check. Include:

• Primary source: Official data (exchange, government, etc.)
• Secondary sources: News outlets, aggregators
• Backup sources: In case primary is unavailable

Example evidence URLs:

https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD

Step 4: Set the Deadline

The deadline is when trading stops and resolution begins.

Considerations:

• Allow enough time for the event to occur
• Add buffer for evidence to become available
• Consider timezone (all times in UTC)

Step 5: Add Initial Liquidity

Initial liquidity determines:

• Starting prices (always 50/50)
• Trading capacity
• Price stability

Step 6: Review and Create

1. Double-check all fields
2. Approve token spending
3. Confirm creation transaction
4. Wait for confirmation

Best Practices

Question Design

• Use neutral language
• Avoid ambiguity
• Be specific about numbers/dates
• Consider all possible outcomes

Resolution Criteria

• Name specific data sources
• Include exact times with timezone
• Define what happens in edge cases
• Make criteria AI-friendly (clear, factual)

Evidence Selection

• Use authoritative sources
• Include multiple sources for redundancy
• Ensure sources will be available at resolution
• Avoid paywalled content

Market Categories

Sports

Question: "Will the Lakers win the 2024 NBA Championship?"
Criteria: "Based on official NBA.com results. YES if Los Angeles
Lakers are declared 2024 NBA Champions, NO otherwise."
Evidence: https://www.nba.com/standings, https://www.espn.com/nba/

Crypto

Question: "Will ETH flip BTC by market cap in 2024?"
Criteria: "Based on CoinGecko data at 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2024.
YES if ETH market cap > BTC market cap, NO otherwise."
Evidence: https://www.coingecko.com/

Politics

Question: "Will [Candidate] win the 2024 Presidential Election?"
Criteria: "Based on official results from the Federal Election
Commission. YES if [Candidate] receives majority of electoral votes."
Evidence: https://www.fec.gov/, https://www.ap.org/

Technology

Question: "Will Apple release AR glasses in 2024?"
Criteria: "YES if Apple officially announces and begins selling
AR glasses (not VR headset) before Dec 31, 2024."
Evidence: https://www.apple.com/, https://www.theverge.com/apple

Troubleshooting

"Insufficient Balance"

• Ensure you have 10,000+ ORACLE plus liquidity amount
• Check token approval was successful

"Invalid Deadline"

• Deadline must be in the future
• Use UTC timezone

"Transaction Failed"

• Check gas fees
• Ensure network is correct
• Try increasing gas limit

After Creation

Once created, your market:

1. Appears on the Markets page
2. Begins accepting trades
3. Earns you trading fees (1% of volume)
4. Resolves automatically after deadline